From Boom to Bottleneck: Why U.S. International Student Numbers May Drop Sharply in 2025 Despite a Record Year
In early 2024, the U.S. international education sector was rocked by what appeared to be troubling news: data from the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) showed an 11% drop in international student enrollment over the previous year. News of the decline spread quickly, prompting universities to rethink recruitment strategies and freeze expansion plans for international programs.
But in July, the narrative took a surprising turn. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released revised SEVIS data on July 2, correcting a significant data error—an undercount of more than 200,000 students. The correction revealed that, far from a steep decline, international student numbers had actually grown by 6.5% between March 2024 and March 2025. As of September 2024, the total number of international students in the U.S. stood at a record-breaking 1.29 million, marking a five-year growth of 26%.
The discrepancy was first flagged not by a federal agency, but by EnglishUSA, a national association for intensive English programs. During a routine analysis, the organization noticed a statistical anomaly starting in August 2023. SEVIS data significantly underreported the actual number of enrolled international students. EnglishUSA reported the issue to DHS on April 14, and the corrected figures were made public nearly three months later.
Chris Glass, a professor and international education expert at Boston College, was among the first to analyze the corrected data. “There was a nine-month gap between the start of the data issue and the system’s correction. It’s still unclear if DHS itself noticed the problem before EnglishUSA raised the red flag,” he remarked. According to Glass, the corrected data doesn’t just improve optics—it rewrites the entire narrative of U.S. international education for the past year.
Still, the good news ends there.
Even as 2024 sets a new high for international enrollment, fresh concerns are emerging for the upcoming 2025/26 academic year. Data from the U.S. Department of State shows a troubling trend: F-1 student visa issuances declined by more than 14% between January and May 2025 compared to the same period the year before. This is particularly alarming given that the vast majority of student visas are processed between May and August—months that are now being called the “lost visa season” by some observers.
The situation worsened when the U.S. temporarily paused new F-1 and M-1 visa appointments for over three weeks during this peak period due to technical system upgrades and procedural changes. When services resumed, a new hurdle was introduced: expanded social media screening for all F, M, and J visa applicants. “Now that appointments have resumed, the backlog—plus expanded screening—has slowed everything down,” Glass explained. “Fewer appointment slots and longer processing times inevitably mean fewer students.”
The human impact is already visible. Nina Brandt, a student from Germany, had secured admission to a master’s program in bioengineering at UC Davis. Her visa appointment was originally scheduled for May 28 but was canceled during the pause. When she rescheduled, the earliest available slot was July 22—just two weeks before her program start date. “If my passport is still at the consulate by the time classes begin, I’ll have to forfeit my place,” she said.
Similar stories are emerging from high-demand regions like India, Vietnam, and Nigeria, where U.S. embassies are already overwhelmed with backlogs and limited appointment availability.
The decline in visa issuance isn’t just an immigration issue—it’s a serious financial risk for many U.S. universities. According to a June 2025 report from Moody’s Investor Services, a drop in international student enrollment could “materially affect institutional credit profiles,” particularly for universities that rely heavily on international tuition revenue.
Currently, about 15% of rated U.S. universities have international student populations exceeding 15%, with some graduate-heavy institutions reporting more than 30%. The financial exposure is massive. As Canadian student Michael Doran, currently enrolled in an arts college in New York, put it, “At our school, international students pay two to three times more than domestic students. If they stop coming, programs get cut, and faculty positions disappear.”
And even for institutions with fewer international students, the risks are real. Schools already under fiscal stress—with weak liquidity or declining domestic enrollments—may see their credit ratings downgraded if international tuition revenue drops sharply.
Beyond financials and logistics, the current U.S. visa environment is shaking student confidence. With the 2025 presidential election approaching, immigration policy has once again become a political battleground. Some Republican candidates have proposed restricting Optional Practical Training (OPT) and limiting STEM graduate work opportunities—two key incentives that draw students to the U.S.
A recent survey by The Hindu reported that more than 28% of Indian STEM applicants are now considering Canada or the U.K. instead of the U.S., citing growing concerns about visa unpredictability and anti-immigrant rhetoric. “Why plan 18 months ahead for a country that might change the rules right before you board the plane?” one respondent asked.
The implications are serious. According to the Institute of International Education (IIE), international students contributed over $41 billion to the U.S. economy in 2023 and supported more than 300,000 jobs. If enrollment declines continue, the broader education economy—from test prep services to housing and health care—could suffer.
The bigger problem may not be the temporary visa delays or even the data errors—it’s the erosion of trust in the U.S. as a stable, welcoming study destination. Glass summed it up bluntly: “Data can be corrected. But once students lose confidence, winning it back is much harder.”